VSA analisys.pdf

(18009 KB) Pobierz
Master the Markets
Taking a Professional Approach to Trading & Investing by
Using Volume Spread Analysis
Third Edition
All Rights Reserved
Copyright © 1993 – 2005
Published by TradeGuider Systems
Printed in the UK & USA
Master the Markets
1
All charts in this book have been provided courtesy of either VSA™ or TradeGuider™ computer software systems.
Copyright © 1993 – Original manuscript by Tom Williams
From the book, “The Undeclared Secrets That Drive the Stock Market”, written by Tom Williams – © 1993
Revised January 2000, by Tom Williams (Copyright © 2000)
Revised, re-illustrated and typeset in 2003, by Roy Didlock (Copyright © 2003)
Co-revised by Tom Williams & Roy Didlock (Copyright © 2004)
Revised by Roy Didlock (Copyright © 2005)
All Rights Reserved.
Published by TradeGuider Systems
This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information with regard to the subject
matter covered. It is sold with the understanding that the publisher is not engaged in rendering professional
services. If professional advice or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent
professional person should be sought.
The contents of this book refer to, and explain, the
basic introductory principles
of the proprietary VSA™
(Volume Spread Analysis™) methodology, which is built into the TradeGuider™ software (formerly the
VSA™ software).
The indicators displayed on the charts are not buy or sell signals, but show either strength or weakness entering
the market. The signals are based on the laws of supply and demand, and show how these forces can be
decoded and represented on a chart.
All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is based on proprietary knowledge and
research. TradeGuider Systems Ltd owns the intellectual property rights to the aforementioned. Without
prior written approval from TradeGuider Systems Ltd, no part of this document may be reproduced or
transmitted in any form or by any means, including but not limited to electronic, mechanical, photocopying
or recording or stored in any retrieval system of whatever nature. Use of any copyright notice does not
imply unrestricted public access to any part of this document. TradeGuider Systems’ trade names used in
this document are trademarks of TradeGuider Systems Ltd. Other trademarks are acknowledged as the
property of their rightful owners.
Master the Markets
2
Acknowledgement
This book is the product of a great deal of research, reflection, and a realisation that the financial markets cannot be
encapsulated by a single, unified mathematical formula, or collection of mathematical formulae.
My personal development would not have been the same without the help, support, and pooling of knowledge with
others over the years. Prominent among these people is Tom Williams, a veteran trader who is now 77 years old.
He is a fascinating man, with an enviable knowledge of market mechanics and was the first trader to open my mind
to the real workings of the financial world. Tom has an intimate understanding of what really goes on behind the
scenes, in professional circles, owing to his 12-plus years experience in Beverley Hills, California, working with a
trading syndicate (off the floor stock traders).
Williams is a brilliant analyst, with a very different thinking from all other public personalities in the trading world.
Some would say that Tom is a genius, and due to his extensive knowledge of the markets, his innovative theories
and faultless comprehension, I am inclined to agree with this opinion.
The VSA trading software was created in the early 1990’s, as a result of his aspiration to pass on his knowledge to
help other traders. Through his seminars in the UK and his book, “The Undeclared Secrets That Drive the Stock
Market”, Tom realised his ambition to help the next generation of traders.
Williams has been instrumental in my understanding of the markets, and has spent many long hours, patiently
explaining how the markets work, and how they are ultimately designed to cause the uninitiated to lose money. I
owe a large debt of gratitude to him, for ‘lifting the veil’ on the tricks and tactics practised by the market-makers
and other professional players, who use a multitude of methods to profit from the unwary.
If you are interested in the markets, you will find the contents of this book immensely interesting. Unlike many
other books, you will find the ideas presented herein difficult to dispute – they make sense and are based on hard
facts, rather than abstract theories!
I hope that after reading this book that you feel just as excited as I was about the prospects of trading in a more
professional manner. There is a significant amount of information in this book that will help you take your trading
and investing to the next level. My advice is to take your time whilst reading this book and concentrate on the
various definitive moves to look out for – try to imagine what is really happening behind the scenes. It takes a bit of
time to take onboard these new ideas, but I can promise that disciplined study and observation will reap rewards.
If you have always felt that there is something missing in your understanding of how things fit together, this book
has been written for you. I sincerely hope that you enjoy being initiated to a new level of awareness!
ROY DIDLOCK
President, TradeGuider Systems
Master the Markets
3
Master the Markets
4
Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ……………………………………………………………………........................
PREAMBLE ………………………….……………………………………………………………….....................
INTRODUCTION
………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
3
8
9
SECTION 1 – MARKET BASICS
Random Walks & Other Misconceptions ……………….…………………………………………. 12
What is the Market? ………………………………………………………………………………………… 13
The Market Professionals ………………………………………………………………………..………. 14
A Special Word About Market-Makers ………………………………………………………..…… 15
Volume – The Key to the Truth ……….……….…………………………………………………….. 16
Further Understanding Volume ……………………………………………………………………….. 18
What is Bullish & Bearish Volume ……………………………………………………………………. 19
Accumulation & Distribution …………………………………………………………………………….. 20
Strong & Weak Holders …………………………………………………………………………………….. 21
Resistance & Crowd Behaviour ……….………………………………………………………………… 23
Supply & Demand ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 25
The Basics of Market Reading …………………………………………………………………………… 26
How to Tell if a Market is Weak or Strong ….…………………………………………………… 28
How to Identify Buying & Selling …………………………………………………………………….. 31
How to Identify Lack of Demand ………………………………………………………………….….. 32
Testing Supply …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 34
Pushing Up Through Supply ………………….………………………………………………………….. 36
High Volume on Market Tops …………………………………………………………………………….. 38
Effort Versus Results ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 39
The Path of Least Resistance …………………………………………………………………………….. 40
Markets can be Marked Up (or Down) …….………………………………………………………… 41
Volume Surges in Related Markets ……………………………………………………………………. 42
Using Different Timeframes ……………………………………………………………………………… 44
The Relationship between the Cash & Futures Price …………………………………………. 45
Manipulation of the Markets ………………………………………………………………………………… 46
SECTION 2 – TRENDS & VOLUME SPREAD ANALYSIS
Introduction to Trends ………………………………………………………………………………………..
Constructing Trend Lines …………………………………………………………………………………….
Bottoms & Tops …………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Trend Scaling ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Why do Trend Lines Appear to Work? ……………………………………………………………….
Using Trends to Determine Overbought and Oversold Levels …………………………..
Perceived Value & Trend Lines …………………………………………………………………………….
Introducing Trend Clusters ………………………………………………………………………………….
Using Trend Clusters ……………………………………………………………………………………………
Analysing Volume Near a Trend Line ………………………………………………………………….
Pushing Through Supply/Support Lines ………………………………………………………………
Absorption Volume & Lower Trend Lines …………………………………………………………….
50
51
52
54
55
56
58
59
61
63
65
68
Master the Markets
5

Plik z chomika:

Inne pliki z tego folderu:

Inne foldery tego chomika:

Zgłoś jeśli naruszono regulamin