Zimbardo_2004_Using_Social_Science_to_Reduce_Terrorism.pdf

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Using Social Science to Reduce Terrorism
S. PIous
Wesleyan University
Philip
O. Zimbardo
Stanford University
Mailing Address:
Department of Psychology, Wesleyan University, 207
High
Street,
Middletown,
CT
06459
Telephone:
Fax:
Electronic mail:
(860) 685-2368
(860) 685-2761
splous@wesleyan.edu
Using Social Science
to Reduce Terrorism
/
Page
2
Abstract
Social
scientists
have made substantial
progress
in understanding
and
predicting
terrorism. Research
suggests
that terrorism
is rarely
the
product of clinical
psychopathology; rather, it is more likely to involve
group
behavior
carried out
by
young
men
who are
motivated by
anger and a variety of sociopolitical and situational factors.
Perhaps for this reason, large-scale military
responses
to terrorism
are
usually
ineffective.
To be
successful in
the long run, anti-terrorism
efforts
must reduce
intergroup conflict,
create
incentives
for fighting terrorism, and socialize young
people to reject
violence
as
a
means
of
problem
solving.
Using
Social Science to Reduce Terrorism / Page 3
Using Social Science to Reduce Terrorism
In a press conference several months after the terrorist
attacks
of September 11,
2001, National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice
said:
"I
don't think anybody
could
have predicted that these people ... would try to use
an
airplane as
a
missile,
a
airplane
as
a
missile"
(1)
.
Yet long before September 11 th,
social
scientists warned that
such an attack
might
occur.
According to
a
1999
report on
"The Sociology
and
Psychology of Terrorism" by
the
Federal
Research Division
of
the Library of Congress:
"AJ-Qaida's
expected
retaliation for
the
U.S.
cruise
missile
attack against
al-Qaida's training
facilities
in
Afghanistan
on
August 20, 1998,
could take
several
forms .... Suicide
bomber(s) belonging to
al-Qaida's
Martyrdom
Battalion could crash-land
an aircraft
... into
the
Pentagon
....
Whatever
form
an
attack
may telke, bin Laden
will
most likely retaliate in a
spectacular way for
the cruise missile attack.
" (2)
As the
fo
regoing report illustrates,
social
scientists
have made substantial progress
in
understanding
and
predicting terrorism. Moreover, this progress has accelerated
since
the September
11 th attacks. In psychol0
gy,
for example, more has been pubhshed on
terrorism since 2001
than
all
previous
years
combined.
[SLP1]
From this new body
of
research,
as well
as
earlier scholarship
in history and political
science,
several
key
findings
have
emerged.
First,
compared with
the general public, terrorists do not
exhibit
unusu
ally
high
rates
of clinical
psychopathology, irrationality,
or personality
disorders
(3-5). Indeed,
h~iacked
Using Social Science to Reduce Terrorism / Page 4
because terrorist cells
require
secrecy, terror
organizations
ti-equently
screen
out unstable
individuals who might
compromise
their security. [SLP2J Nor do terrorists differ greatly from
other people in
self-esteem,
religiosity, socioeconomic
status, education,
or personality
traits such as introversion
(4-6).
Thus far, behavioral research has found only one
psychological
attribute
that reliably differentiates terrorists from non-terrorists: a
propensity toward anger.[SLP3]
In the
words
of a recent
National
Research Council issued
a
report
entitled
Terrorism:
Perspectivesjl~om
the Behavioral
and
Social
Sciences:
"There is no single or
typical mentality -- much less a
specific
pathology --
of
terrorists. However, terrorists
apparently
fInd significant
gratification
in the
expression
of
generalized rage." (7)
Beyond
variolls sociopolitical,
economic, and religious
objectives,
one of the most
common motivations for joining
a
terrorist organization
is the
desire for revenge or
retribution
for
a perceived injllstice.[sLP4] Many terrorists report that acts of
violence
committed
by police,
soldiers,
or others
are
what led them to join
a
terrorist group
,
and in
the case of Palestinians, suicide bombers
often
have at least one relative
or
close friend
who was
killed or
injured
by
the
other side
(8
-10)_
In
addition to harboring intense anger over perceived
injustice,
terrorists diiler
from the general
public
in their demographic composition. Although exceptions
exist,
terrorists
are
usually males between 15 and
30
years
of age -- the
same
population most
likely to
commit violent
crune
Ul
general, and
the demographic
group
least likely to be
deterred by the threat
of
physical force (8). Perhaps for this
reason, studies
suggest that
large-scale military responses to terrorism tend to be ineffective or temporarily
increase
Using Social Science to Reduce Terrorism / Page 5
terrorist activity
(11, 12).
This pattern is apparent in the accompanying figure, which shows an increase in
U.S. troop casualties since May, 2003, when President Bush declared the end of major
combat operations in Iraq. Even after the capture of Saddam Hussein on December 13,
2003, suicide bombings and guerilla attacks in Iraq continued to rise. Likewise, the
average number of suicide attacks per week in Israel was higher ill the month after
Baghdad fell than in the preceding 14 months
(J
3)
.
And despite the fact that 70 percent of
Al Qaeda's core leadership has been caught or killed, the organization has carried out
more attacks since September 11
,
2001, than it did ill the three years before (14).
If
military responses to terrorism are counterproductive, what can be done? In the
short run, the United States can fortify self-protective measures
,
encourage citizen
vigilance in likely target areas
,
and improve training and information sharing among
intelligence organizations, law-enforcement personnel, branches of government, and allies
(15).
Although self-protective measures will never be fool-proof, they have the virtue of
being non-provocative and less costly than war. For example, the cost of safeguarding
weapons-grade uranium and plutonium is relatively low, yet less was done to safeguard
nuclear weapons material in the two years immediately after September 11, 2001, than in
the two years before the attacks (16).
In the long run, at least three priorities are of paramount importance: reducing
intergroup conflict, creating incentives for the reduction of terrorism, and socializing young
people to reject violence as a means of problem solving.
With respect to the first goal, social science research suggests that intergroup

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